![]() ![]() Weekly exports to countries that introduced lockdown measures increased by an average of 13 percent, while imports from those countries decreased by 23.4 percent. The results show that the introduction of lockdown measures by Kenya’s trading partners had a positive effect on exports but a negative one on imports. We subsequently conducted an event study analysis to assess how the introduction of lockdown policies (such as workplace closure, stay-at-home requirements, and restrictions on internal and international travel) by trading partners affected Kenya’s trade flows. We constructed a weekly series of imports and exports at product level (6-digit HS codes) by country of origin (for imports) and destination (for exports). To analyze the effects of lockdown policies on Kenya’s international trade performance, we use disaggregated, transaction-level data of imports and exports from Jto June 30, 2020. Measuring the effects of lockdown policies The economic slowdown has led to an increase in unemployment, which was 10.4 percent in the second quarter of 2020. Kenya’s real GDP is estimated to have grown by just 1 percent in 2020, much lower than the 5.4 percent in the previous year, but considerably better than performances of other emerging and developing countries (-2.4 percent) and advanced economies (-4.9 percent). COVID-19 arrived somewhat late in Kenya and other African countries, but its effects have nonetheless been severe. In a new working paper, we analyze the short-term effects of lockdown policies by Kenya’s trading partners on the country’s import and export trade. Massive unemployment caused by the economic slowdown and business closures has fueled uncertainties, further reducing demand for internationally traded goods, particularly for durables. The onset of the pandemic also created demand shocks, leading to stockpiling of essential commodities such as food products and medical items. Lockdown policies led to supply chain disruption by increasing trade costs and delaying or entirely prohibiting border clearance. Tutorial Fellow, School of Economics - University of Nairobi, Kenya
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